Why EU oil price surges could push up your restaurant or shop’s energy and delivery costs
If you run a café, takeaway, restaurant or small shop in the UK, you may soon notice higher energy bills or delivery charges—even if your own usage hasn’t changed. The reason? A sharp rise in the value of the EU’s oil imports, while the volume of oil bought stayed almost the same. This signals a global oil price surge, which can feed into UK wholesale energy costs, supplier pricing strategies, and later contract renewals or variable tariffs.
Here’s what’s happening and how it could affect your business.
What happened
In the second quarter of 2026 (April to June), the value of the EU’s petroleum oil imports jumped by 55.8% compared to the 2025 monthly average. However, the volume of oil imported barely changed, rising just 1.2% to 36.7 million tonnes (Eurostat, 2026).
This means the EU is paying far more for the same amount of oil. The stable volume rules out a supply shortage, so the price surge is likely driven by other factors—such as geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations (like a weaker euro), or market speculation.
How the market link works
The EU is a major player in the global oil market, and its import trends often reflect broader price movements. Since the UK is closely tied to European energy markets, these shifts can ripple into your business costs in several ways:
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Wholesale energy prices: Oil is a key input for global energy markets. When oil prices rise, wholesale gas and electricity prices often follow, as suppliers adjust their hedging (risk management) strategies. This can lead to higher costs for energy providers, which may later be passed on to businesses like yours.
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Transport and delivery costs: Oil is the main fuel for road transport. If global oil prices stay high, delivery companies may raise their fees to cover fuel expenses. This could increase your costs for ingredients, packaging, or even customer deliveries.
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Supplier pricing and contract renewals: Many UK energy suppliers buy energy in advance to lock in prices (a process called hedging). If they bought energy at lower prices before the surge, you might not see an immediate impact. However, when your contract comes up for renewal—or if you’re on a variable tariff—you could face higher rates reflecting the new market conditions.
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Currency effects: Oil is traded in US dollars. If the pound weakens against the dollar, the UK pays more for oil imports, adding another layer of cost pressure.
What this does not prove
The Eurostat data does not show:
- A direct rise in UK energy bills or delivery costs yet.
- That your supplier will immediately raise prices.
- That all businesses will be affected equally—some may have fixed contracts or hedging protections.
The data is a signal of potential cost pressure, not a guarantee of higher expenses. However, it’s a useful indicator of where wholesale energy and transport fuel prices may be heading.
What owners can monitor or check now
While you can’t control global oil prices, you can stay informed and prepare:
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Wholesale energy prices: Check platforms like Ofgem’s wholesale market reports or industry news for trends. Rising wholesale prices often precede higher retail costs.
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Delivery contracts: If you rely on frequent deliveries (e.g., fresh ingredients), ask your suppliers if they anticipate fuel surcharges or price adjustments.
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Your energy contract: Note when your current deal ends. If it’s a fixed contract, you’re protected until renewal. If it’s variable, you may see changes sooner.
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Currency trends: A weaker pound can make oil imports more expensive. Monitor exchange rates (e.g., GBP/USD) via financial news or tools like the Bank of England’s exchange rate tracker.
Sources
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Last checked: 2026-10-13